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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2014-06-29 04:36:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.4N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.0N 115.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 17.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 107.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2014-06-28 23:08:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2014 20:46:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Jun 2014 21:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-06-28 22:45:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 282045 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure southwest of Mexico has enough banded convective organization and center definition to be declared a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, in agreement with an ASCAT-B pass from 1602 UTC. The large-scale environment looks favorable for strengthening, with an upper-level anticyclone located just east of the center, along with plenty of warm water. However, the depression has a rather large circulation envelope and radius of maximum winds, which could preclude anything more than gradual strengthening. Guidance is split, with the LGEM/SHIPS showing a strong tropical storm, while the HWRF/GFDL keep the system weaker through the first few days of the forecast. The NHC prediction is a little below the intensity consensus at first to account for the initial structure, then is above the consensus on Days 2/3 under the assumption the system eventually consolidates. Some weakening seems likely at longer ranges due to cooler waters and possible dry air aloft. The initial motion of the cyclone is 295/10. A ridge currently over the eastern Pacific and northern Mexico is forecast to build eastward and strengthen over the next couple of days, which should cause the cyclone to accelerate and take a slight leftward bend by Monday. The guidance is in good agreement and the NHC track forecast is close to the model consensus during this time. Afterward, there is much uncertainty in the forecast due to a possible interaction with invest EP97 to the east, along with the ridge likely weakening along 120W. The model solutions become rather divergent, ranging from a slow southward motion from the HWRF/GFDL to a moderate westward motion from the ECMWF/GEFS. The NHC forecast at long range will show a slow westward course, more in line with the ECMWF/GEFS solutions, and is west of the track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 14.5N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 15.3N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 17.5N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042014)
2014-06-28 22:44:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 28 the center of FOUR-E was located near 14.5, -105.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 1
2014-06-28 22:44:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 282044 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 105.8W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A FASTER MOTION IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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