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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2013-06-30 05:08:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2013 02:37:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2013 03:04:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-06-30 04:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300238 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS NOW ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FEATURES A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH SOME RAGGED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE SITUATED NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/09...GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION FEATURES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE FEATURES SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS...FOLLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS MODEL TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SEVERAL OF THEM DO NOT INITIALIZE THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL. GIVEN THIS...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS OR SO...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS. BY DAY 4...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 13.7N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.9N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 16.1N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 17.1N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 17.9N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 19.2N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042013)
2013-06-30 04:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 the center of FOUR-E was located near 13.7, -103.0 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 1
2013-06-30 04:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 103.0W ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-06-30 04:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC SUN JUN 30 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 4 7 10 17 TROP DEPRESSION 11 17 18 15 13 23 40 TROPICAL STORM 88 73 64 58 57 57 41 HURRICANE 1 7 15 23 23 11 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 7 13 19 19 9 1 HUR CAT 2 X X 2 3 3 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 55KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 3(18) 1(19) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 4(26) X(26) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 15(27) 10(37) 4(41) X(41) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 13(26) 7(33) 3(36) 1(37) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) 3(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 6(26) 1(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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