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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-08 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 20:36:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 20:36:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-08 22:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 The earlier burst of deep convection almost completely dissipated, leaving the core of the low-level circulation briefly exposed. However, over the past couple of hours new convection has redeveloped over the center of Kevin. This disruption, possibly aided by moderate northeasterly shear, put a temporary pause on the cyclone's strengthening. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased to 3.0 (45 kt), while the CI-values remain at 3.5 (55 kt). Based on a blend of these numbers, the estimated initial advisory intensity remains 50 kt. Kevin is forecast to remain over warm waters while embedded in a moist and unstable atmospheric environment for the next 48 h or so. The main inhibiting factor for intensification is the persistent vertical wind shear, which is forecast to persist for the next few days. Kevin is forecast by all of the intensity guidance to overcome this shear, and slowly strengthen over the next two days. After 60 h, Kevin should begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment, which should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. By 120 h, the system is forecast to be over waters of less than 23 degrees C, likely causing the cyclone to become devoid of deep convection. The only notable change in the latest NHC forecast from the previous one was to introduce the mention of the system as post-tropical by day 5. Otherwise, the latest forecast remains near the IVCN consensus aid. Kevin continues to move westward, or 270/7 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. A mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge that is currently steering Kevin westward. This should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward overnight and this west-northwestward heading is then expected to continue for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest track guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.0N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 19.0N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 19.8N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 21.5N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 23.0N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-08 22:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 082031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 12 3(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 29(33) 44(77) 7(84) X(84) X(84) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 25(31) 13(44) 1(45) X(45) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 23(49) 1(50) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-08 22:31:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN EXPECTED TO RESUME STRENGTHENING TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 8 the center of Kevin was located near 15.8, -109.7 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 6
2021-08-08 22:31:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 082030 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 ...KEVIN EXPECTED TO RESUME STRENGTHENING TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 109.7W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.7 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, and that general motion should continue into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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