je.st
news
Tag: kevin
Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-11 04:52:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 824 WTPZ31 KNHC 110252 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED KEVIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 115.4W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 115.4 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin tomorrow and Kevin is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
Tags: number
public
kevin
storm
Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-11 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 02:37:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 02:37:00 GMT
Tags: graphics
kevin
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-11 04:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110236 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Tracking the center of Kevin this evening has been a challenge, as multiple low-level swirls appear to be rotating cyclonically around a broader mean circulation. The deeper convection remains mostly south of the estimated circulation center, though some cooler cloud tops did attempt to build northward, following a mesovortex seen on visible satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 0000 UTC were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was hovering between these values at 42 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates given the earlier ASCAT data. The initial motion is estimated at 315/7 kt, attempting to follow the mean center that has several mesovorticies rotating around. A general northwest to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue over the next several days as the large cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its northeast. The latest track guidance was a bit more poleward compared to the previous cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit more poleward in the short term, choosing to remain close to the track guidance consensus. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear continues to keep Kevin's deepest convection downshear in the southern semicircle of the large circulation envelope. Over the next 24 hours, Kevin will also be crossing a sharp sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient, with sub 26 C SSTs not far away to the north. As the cyclone moves over these progressively cooler waters, gradual weakening should commence. Simulated IR brightness temperature data from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kevin will lose its remaining organized convection by 48-60 hours, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows Kevin becoming a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 19.5N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.7N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 23.0N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 24.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 25.1N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 26.3N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 28.4N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
kevin
storm
Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-11 04:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-10 22:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102042 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Kevin is a poorly defined tropical cyclone. A recent scatterometer pass shows a small enclosed low embedded in a larger, elongated cyclonic gyre. This satellite wind data also indicated that the strongest winds associated with the cyclone are located well to the south of the center. Some of this data was questionable, and the wind retrievals greater than 45 kt were in an area of deep convection and likely rain contaminated. However, there were a few believable wind vectors outside of the convection between 40-45 kt, so Kevin's initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt, despite the disorganized satellite presentation. The scatterometer data along with surface observations from Clarion Island revealed that the mean center of Kevin is farther to the southwest than previously estimated, and therefore the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/08kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Other than an adjustment to the short-term track based on the shift in the initial position, the latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next 18-24 h, which should limit the cyclone's ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on this scenario, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows no change in strength through tonight, followed by weakening beginning Wednesday. By 72 h, CMC and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery continue to suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.1N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 19.9N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 21.2N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 22.2N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 24.3N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 25.3N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 27.1N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
kevin
storm
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] next »