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Tropical Storm KEVIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2015-09-04 22:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 042036 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Advisory Number 17
2015-09-04 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 042036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 115.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 115.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.8N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N 116.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Graphics
2015-09-04 17:26:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 14:50:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 15:10:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-09-04 16:54:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041454 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 Kevin's cloud pattern consists of a large circular mass of very deep convection, with the low- to mid-level centers nearly co-located as of several hours. Since that time, satellite data indicate that the cyclone has begun the process of decoupling due to the 25 kt of south-southwesterly vertical shear affecting it. Although Dvorak intensity estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC, the initial wind speed is kept at 50 kt due to the weakening that has likely begun. Even stronger shear associated with a potent mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of Kevin should result in a complete separation of the cyclone's low- to mid-level circulations within 24 hours, according to global models. Substantially drier air behind the trough should also be entrained by the cyclone, which should cause a collapse of deep convection during the next or so. Global models depict Kevin becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours and show dissipation by 72 hours. The new intensity forecast shows faster weakening than the previous one, with remnant low status and dissipation also indicated sooner. Based on fixes from a series of microwave passes overnight, the cyclone has been moving a little east of due north, and the initial motion estimate is 010/07. Kevin should turn due north soon when the trough to its northwest sinks southward. As Kevin decouples during the next 24 hours, a deceleration is forecast by the model guidance. A bend in the track toward the northwest and west- northwest is also anticipated during this time, when Kevin meets the opposing flow around the low-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. The new track forecast is on the right side of the guidance envelope at first, primarily due to the north-northeasterly motion overnight but is shifted a bit southward once Kevin becomes a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 21.2N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 22.1N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 22.9N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 23.3N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 23.4N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm KEVIN (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-04 16:50:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAST... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 4 the center of KEVIN was located near 21.2, -115.2 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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