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Summary for Tropical Storm KEVIN (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-04 10:46:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 4 the center of KEVIN was located near 20.2, -115.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Public Advisory Number 15
2015-09-04 10:46:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 040846 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 ...KEVIN MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 115.8W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 115.8 West. Kevin is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west-northwest is expected over the next 48 hours along with a decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening should begin later today, and Kevin is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Advisory Number 15
2015-09-04 10:46:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040846 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 115.8W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 70SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 115.8W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.2N 116.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.9N 116.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.4N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Graphics
2015-09-04 05:26:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 02:31:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 03:10:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-09-04 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040232 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015 Intense thunderstorms have been persisting near the center of Kevin during the past several hours, with outflow continuing especially in the cyclone's northern semicircle. Microwave data also show that the inner core of the storm is better defined than earlier today. The initial intensity is thus increased to 50 kt, a blend of the 45 kt classification from TAFB and the 55 kt one from SAB. The cyclone should reach its peak intensity in the next 12 hours or so while the shear remains low-to-moderate and waters are warm. Thereafter, the shear is forecast to strengthen and Kevin will encounter more marginal SSTs and dry mid-level air, which should cause weakening. The official forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the intensity consensus. Degeneration into a remnant low in expected about 3 days due to a continuation of the higher shear, low moisture and cool water environment. Kevin is moving a little faster tonight, estimated at 360/8. Over the next day or so, while the system remains vertically intact, it should move generally northward around the southwest side of a mid- level ridge. Afterward, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn toward the northwest and west and be steered mainly by the low-level flow. Model guidance, however, is not in good agreement on when this leftward turn will occur, with almost all of the guidance delaying the turn a bit longer on this cycle, resulting in Kevin gaining more latitude. Because Kevin has now become a deeper cyclone, it makes sense to move the new NHC prediction north of the previous one given that Kevin should now take a little longer to become a more shallow cyclone. However, the new forecast still lies south of most of the guidance and the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.7N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 22.7N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 23.3N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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