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Post-Tropical Cyclone KEVIN Forecast Advisory Number 20
2015-09-05 16:44:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 051443 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 114.6W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 114.6W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 114.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON KEVIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Graphics
2015-09-05 10:53:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 08:35:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 08:52:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-09-05 10:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050834 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 South-southwesterly shear around 30 kt has displaced all remaining deep convection northeastward over the central Baja California peninsula, more than 120 n mi northeast of the presumed low-level center. A recent ASCAT pass sampled the western half of the circulation and showed no tropical storm force winds. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt as a blend of the latest Dvorak numbers, with the assumption that tropical storm force winds might still be occurring within the eastern side of the circulation, which wasn't sampled by the scatterometer. Strong shear will continue advecting the leftover convection away from the low-level circulation, and barring redevelopment of new convection, Kevin will likely become a remnant low later today. Winds are forecast to quickly decrease, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Kevin is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, as shown by the latest global model fields. The center has been difficult to locate, but microwave images suggest that it has been tugged northeastward by the convection. The initial motion is 010/6 kt, but now that Kevin is becoming a shallow cyclone, it should be steered slowly northwestward and then westward by 36 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is a little east of the previous one, only because of the adjusted initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 23.0N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 23.6N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 24.0N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 24.1N 116.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm KEVIN (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-05 10:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 the center of KEVIN was located near 23.0, -114.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Public Advisory Number 19
2015-09-05 10:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050834 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 ...KEVIN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 114.8W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 114.8 West. Kevin is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and then west at a slower forward speed is expected through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kevin is expected to degenerate to a remnant low later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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