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Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-06-26 10:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260831 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 COSME LIKELY PEAKED WITH AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT AT 0000 AND 0600 UTC BASED ON A BLEND OF VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE PRESENCE OF AN 18 NMI DIAMETER EYE IN WINDSAT...SSMIS...AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0100 UTC AND 0430 UTC. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SINCE THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY AS COSME HAS BEGUN ITS TREK OVER COLDER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 70 KT. AFTER THE MULTIPLE JOGS AND WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...HURRICANE COSME APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED INTO A NICE SMOOTH MOTION OF 290/12 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MASSIVE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH... AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER THAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AND IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. COSME IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATER...REACHING SUB-22C SSTS BY 36 HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND THE ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FACTORS THAT COULD POSSIBLY HELP COSME RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS. BY 18-24 HOURS... HOWEVER...THE MUCH COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE... WITH DEGENERATION INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS... IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INDICATES DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.4N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.6N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.1N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 21.7N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z 21.7N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 21.7N 138.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane COSME Graphics
2013-06-26 05:07:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2013 02:51:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2013 03:03:43 GMT
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hurricane cosme
Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-06-26 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260250 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 A BANDING EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT COSME NEARLY HAD A CLOSED EYEWALL AROUND 0000 UTC. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE CLOSING. COSME IS LOCATED OVER A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS MOVING INTO A HOSTILE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT...AND COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/12. WHILE THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER COSME GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...ALLOWING COSME TO GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.9N 113.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.5N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 20.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 21.7N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
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Hurricane COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-06-26 04:49:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260249 PWSEP3 HURRICANE COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0300 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 4 13 31 30 40 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 21 37 44 46 45 TROPICAL STORM 17 63 64 45 25 22 15 HURRICANE 84 35 11 5 1 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 77 30 10 4 1 1 X HUR CAT 2 5 4 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 60KT 45KT 35KT 25KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLA CLARION 64 44 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-26 04:48:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME LIKELY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 the center of COSME was located near 17.9, -113.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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hurricane cosme