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Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 9
2018-08-17 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 511 WTNT35 KNHC 170832 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 ...ERNESTO STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.6N 36.4W ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM NW OF THE AZORES ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 45.6 North, longitude 36.4 West. Ernesto is moving quickly toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and an even faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, Ernesto will approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal zone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-08-17 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 510 WTNT25 KNHC 170832 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.6N 36.4W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 240SE 180SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.6N 36.4W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 37.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 50.4N 23.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 140SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 52.5N 14.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.6N 36.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
2018-08-17 04:38:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 02:38:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 03:22:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-08-17 04:37:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 866 WTNT45 KNHC 170237 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 Convection associated with Ernesto has increased in both coverage and intensity since the last advisory, with a large convective band wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the system. However, recent scatterometer data suggests that this has not yet resulted in strengthening, with winds of 35-40 kt observed about 80 n mi southeast of the center. Based mainly on the scatterometer data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. While Ernesto is in a warm moist air mass to the east of a mid-latitude cyclone near Newfoundland, the forecast track quickly takes it over sea surface temperatures that will decrease to near 15C in 24 h. This should lead to the dissipation of the convection and to Ernesto becoming a post-tropical cyclone. In 36-48 h, the post-tropical cyclone should merge with a frontal zone, with the resulting extratropical low dissipating between 48-72 h. Overall, the new intensity forecast is nudged slightly downward from the previous forecast, as the guidance no longer shows significant strengthening. Given the increased convection, though, some short-lived strengthening could occur in the next 12 h. In addition, the current trends have led to the time of Ernesto becoming post-tropical being moved back 12 h. The initial motion is now 055/19. The cyclone should accelerate further while moving northeastward to east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered and, as with the previous advisory, little change was made to the track forecast. On the forecast track, Ernesto or its remnants should approach Ireland and the United Kingdom in about 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 44.1N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 46.1N 34.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 48.9N 27.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 18/1200Z 51.2N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0000Z 53.2N 12.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-08-17 04:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 505 FONT15 KNHC 170237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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