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Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2018-08-16 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 721 FONT15 KNHC 162032 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)

2018-08-16 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERNESTO BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WHILE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 43.0, -41.0 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 7

2018-08-16 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 970 WTNT35 KNHC 162031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 ...ERNESTO BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WHILE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.0N 41.0W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 41.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) A faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Friday, some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Little change is expected late Friday through Saturday before the post-tropical cyclone merges with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 7

2018-08-16 22:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 781 WTNT25 KNHC 162031 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 41.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 41.0W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 42.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 44.9N 37.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 47.7N 31.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 50.2N 23.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 52.0N 15.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.0N 41.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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