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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 23

2018-08-06 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 517 WTPZ25 KNHC 060232 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HECTOR. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 139.2W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 139.2W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 138.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.8N 144.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 147.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.6N 150.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.0N 156.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 139.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HECTOR. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

Hurricane Hector Graphics

2018-08-06 01:55:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 23:55:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 23:55:43 GMT

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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 22

2018-08-06 01:54:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 830 WTPZ45 KNHC 052354 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Special Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 This special advisory is to update the initial and forecast intensities for Hector. Satellite data indicate that the hurricane has continued to strengthen during the past 6 h, and the initial intensity has increased to at least 120 kt. Based on this, the intensities for the first 36 h of the forecast have been increased. There are no changes to the forecast track, the wind radii, or the intensities from 48-120 h. The NOAA G-IV aircraft is releasing dropsondes as it circumnavigates Hector during its flight to Hawaii to support forecast operations over the next few days. Data from these dropsondes should be incorporated into this evening's 0000 UTC dynamical models. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on the Hawaiian Islands. It is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 15.3N 142.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 15.9N 145.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 148.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 17.0N 160.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 17.7N 166.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2018-08-06 01:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0000 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 396 FOPZ15 KNHC 052353 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0000 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 AT 0000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 85 11(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 140W 64 42 37(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 145W 34 X 4( 4) 80(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 15N 145W 50 X 1( 1) 43(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) 20(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 28(55) X(55) X(55) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 73(77) 1(78) X(78) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) X(45) X(45) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 12(48) X(48) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 30(65) 1(66) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) X(31) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 18(43) X(43) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) X(25) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 66(77) 1(78) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 2(45) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 6(39) 15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) 15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 4(25) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 10(42) BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 15N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)

2018-08-06 01:53:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HECTOR CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... As of 5:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 5 the center of Hector was located near 14.5, -138.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Tags: summary hurricane hector ep5ep102018

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