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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-08-05 04:39:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 058 WTPZ45 KNHC 050239 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 Hector has the textbook appearance of a major hurricane in satellite imagery this evening, as it is maintaining a well-defined 10 nm wide eye inside a central dense overcast. Satellite intensity estimates are mostly near 115 kt, and based on these estimates that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The most notable change since the last advisory has been an increase in convection in an outer band that now mostly surrounds the CDO. The initial motion is 275/10. There is little change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A large subtropical ridge to the north should steer the hurricane generally westward through the forecast period, with Hector gradually gaining some latitude on Sunday and beyond due to a weakness in the ridge. By 72-96 h, most of the guidance shows a more westward motion south of the Hawaiian Islands. Based on slight shifts in the consensus models, the new forecast track is nudged a little to the north of the previous track through 72 h, and it is similar to the previous track after that time. It should be noted that there remains some spread in the dynamical models as Hector approaches Hawaii, with the NAVGEM, HWRF, and GFS to the north of the center of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF to the south. The recent increase in outer band convection decreases the short- term chance that Hector will become an annular hurricane. However, the cyclone will be in the light-shear moderate-SST conditions favorable for such an evolution, and it could occur later in the forecast period. Before this, it is likely that Hector will undergo another eyewall replacement with associated fluctuations in intensity. After 36-48 h, the hurricane should start to encounter a drier airmass and slowly weaken in consequence. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and it lies at the upper end of the intensity guidance. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, it is too soon to determine what kind of impacts might occur in the state, since track errors can be large at long time ranges. This remains a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.3N 134.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.5N 136.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 15.3N 141.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.8N 144.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 17.0N 156.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 17.5N 161.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-08-05 04:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 354 FOPZ15 KNHC 050238 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 135W 50 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 135W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X 58(58) 41(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 X 9( 9) 82(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 140W 64 X 2( 2) 68(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 62(64) 16(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 22(46) X(46) X(46) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 5(58) X(58) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 47(75) 1(76) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 36(42) X(42) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 3(42) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BRADSHAW AAF 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 55(56) 11(67) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 7(47) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 7(31) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 21N 158W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BARKING SANDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 36(70) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-05 04:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HECTOR BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 4 the center of Hector was located near 14.3, -134.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 18
2018-08-05 04:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 204 WTPZ35 KNHC 050238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 ...HECTOR BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 134.7W ABOUT 1395 MI...2245 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hector. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 134.7 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Hector will cross into the central Pacific basin Sunday night or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Hector is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next few days. However, Hector is expected to remain a major hurricane as it moves into the central Pacific basin. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-08-05 04:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 477 WTPZ25 KNHC 050237 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HECTOR. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 134.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 134.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 134.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.5N 136.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 141.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.8N 144.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 17.0N 156.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 17.5N 161.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 134.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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