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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 3A
2021-06-18 13:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 181136 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 700 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 91.5W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the broad area of low pressure was centered near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 91.5 West. The system is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. A slow northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form over the central or northern Gulf of Mexico later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches), based on surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay ...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL... 1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. TORNADOES: The threat for a tornado or two will begin this afternoon across coastal Louisiana, then spread overnight into Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-18 11:01:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Three was located near 25.2, -91.5 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 3
2021-06-18 11:01:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 180901 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 3...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Corrected to add states to storm surge communication points ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 91.5W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward for the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was centered near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. The system is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. A slow northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form over the west-central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches), based on observations from NOAA buoy 42001. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.huricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay ...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL... 1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. TORNADOES: The threat for a tornado or two will begin this afternoon across coastal Louisiana, then spread overnight into Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
2021-06-18 10:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 08:56:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 08:56:05 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-06-18 10:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180855 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 The system became a little better organized overnight at the northern end of its associated broad surface trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Satellite images show increasing deep convection along with more curvature to the low clouds, suggesting that the ill-defined center of this system is trying to re-form farther to the north. Since it still lacks a well-defined center, the system remains a potential tropical cyclone. Recent scatterometer data indicate that winds have increased to at least 30 kt and have grown over a larger area on the east side of the circulation. The initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/12. There is fair agreement that this northward motion, with some re-formation of the center, will continue as the system remains steered by a subtropical ridge to the southeast. The low should then turn northeastward and move across the southeastern U.S. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast and the guidance is in fairly good agreement. It should also be noted that model "spaghetti" plots are not doing a good job tracking the center of this system, and could give a very misleading impression on the forecast track if used by themselves. There is still a lot of shear over the Gulf of Mexico and that should continue through landfall. However, the system is somewhat hybrid in nature and the shear shouldn't prevent its intensification to a tropical storm later today (possibly with subtropical characteristics). Model guidance is consistent with slow strengthening until landfall, and the new forecast is close to the previous one. After landfall, most of the global models show a strong band of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds persisting on the southeastern side. The expected large distance from the center necessitates extending the Tropical Storm Warning into the northwestern Florida panhandle. The system will likely dissipate in about 3 days over the southeastern United States. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast with flood impacts spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin today in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 25.2N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/1800Z 27.0N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 19/0600Z 29.2N 91.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 31.0N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0600Z 32.6N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1800Z 34.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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