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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-06-18 10:55:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 114 FONT13 KNHC 180855 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 X 6( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 10(10) 27(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 9 35(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 13(13) 16(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-06-18 10:53:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 180853 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.0N 91.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.2N 91.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.0N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.6N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.5N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 91.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
2021-06-18 07:40:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 05:40:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 03:22:36 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-18 07:40:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Three was located near 24.0, -92.0 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-06-18 07:40:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 180540 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 100 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 92.0W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was centered near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 92.0 West. The system is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form over the west-central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible beginning today and continuing through the weekend from along the Central Gulf coast, northeastward into the southern Appalachians. This will likely produce areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. TORNADOES: The threat for a couple of tornadoes is expected to begin this afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should expand northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and southwest Alabama Friday night into Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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