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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-18 04:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180238 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has changed little in organization during the past several hours, and the associated convection lies well to the east of the broad and poorly defined center. The initial intensity will be held at 25 kt based partially on ship reports from the northeastern and northern parts of the system. Due to the poorly defined center, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/8. The system should move generally northward for the next 24-36 h to a position near the coast of Louisiana, followed by a motion toward the northeast across the southeastern United States as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by an upper-level trough over Texas, northern Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track is basically an update of the previous forecast. It should be noted that the latest GFS run continues to forecast a re-formation of the center to the north sometime on Friday, and the forecast forward motion tries to account for this possibility. The aforementioned upper-level trough is causing shear over the system, and present indications are that some shear will persist through landfall and hinder development. The intensity forecast calls for the low to become a tropical cyclone in about 12 h, followed by some modest strengthening to tropical storm strength at 24-36 h. This would be followed by weakening over land, with the system dissipating over the southeastern United States between 72- 96 h. There is a chance that, due to the interaction with the upper-level trough, the system may take on subtropical cyclone characteristics instead of tropical cyclone characteristics. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive well in advance of landfall. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast, spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas near and well to the east of the center along portions of the central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 23.5N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/1200Z 25.0N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 19/0000Z 27.2N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 29.8N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1200Z 34.1N 86.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 21/0000Z 35.6N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
2021-06-18 04:38:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 02:38:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 02:38:30 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-06-18 04:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 180238 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 13(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 18(18) 13(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 18(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 10(10) 22(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 23(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-18 04:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 the center of Three was located near 23.5, -92.2 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-06-18 04:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 180237 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 92.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 92.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 92.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.0N 92.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 27.2N 92.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.1N 86.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 35.6N 83.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 92.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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