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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 34

2021-07-08 16:55:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 081455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 79.7W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 79.7W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 80.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.6N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 53.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 59.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 79.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics

2021-07-08 13:59:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 11:59:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 11:27:30 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)

2021-07-08 13:57:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AS ELSA HEADS NORTHEASTWARD... As of 8:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 the center of Elsa was located near 34.2, -80.5 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 33A

2021-07-08 13:57:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 081157 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AS ELSA HEADS NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 80.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River South Carolina has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 80.5 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Friday night or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. Myrtle Beach International Airport, South Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts this morning, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday and Friday night. Non-tropical gale warnings are in effect for portions of the U. S. coast north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, and gale conditions are expected in this area late Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across portions of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely through Thursday, which may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches on Thursday through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a tornado or two may continue tonight into Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin

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