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Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-07-07 17:00:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 15:00:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-07 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 the center of Elsa was located near 29.9, -83.6 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 30
2021-07-07 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 071459 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 83.6W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM WSW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All warnings south of Aripeka, Florida, have been discontinued. The hurricane warning along the west coast of Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida Gulf coast has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the mid-Atlantic coast to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including the Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island, and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Aripeka to the Aucilla River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River * Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a generally northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move inland into Florida this afternoon. The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as Elsa moves further inland this afternoon into tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. An unofficial weather station at Horseshoe Beach, Florida recently measured a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) gusting to 71 mph (114 km/h). Earlier, a C-MAN station at Cedar Key, Florida measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) gusting to 59 mph (95 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Aripeka, FL including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2021-07-07 16:59:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 071459 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 60 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) JACKSONVILLE 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 30
2021-07-07 16:59:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 071459 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF ARIPEKA...FLORIDA...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH...THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND...AND DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO THE AUCILLA RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 83.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.7N 82.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 95SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.3N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.6N 73.3W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 68.0W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 58.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 83.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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