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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 31

2021-07-07 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 072056 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...ELSA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 83.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor to the eastern tip along the north shore. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of southern New England from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. All warnings have been discontinued along the Florida Gulf coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.4 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Moody Air Force Base near Valdosta, Georgia, has recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Aucilla River...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to 3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches. Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and isolated moderate flood. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 31

2021-07-07 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 072056 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

2021-07-07 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 072056 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 20(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DANVILLE VA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X 13(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 13 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAVANNAH GA 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WAYCROSS GA 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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