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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-07-06 22:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 062039 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt. Elsa is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge of the main area of deep convection. Much of the western half of the circulation continues to lack significant shower or thunderstorm activity. Moderate westerly vertical shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the cyclone until landfall within the next day or so. However this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a hurricane overnight. Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt. A continued northward track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the eastern United States and eastern Canada. The official track forecast is similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of the model consensus tracks. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Mid- to late-week, heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through Wednesday morning. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple of days, tropical storm conditions are expected in a portion of southeastern Georgia and are possible elsewhere along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 27.5N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 30.0N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/0600Z 32.3N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z 34.8N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 37.4N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2021-07-06 22:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 449 FONT15 KNHC 062039 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 18(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 17(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 6( 6) 29(35) 7(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 8( 8) 36(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 37(40) 25(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 40(41) 27(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WAYCROSS GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 39(42) 18(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 51(53) 18(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) JACKSONVILLE 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 3 84(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 39(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 31(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 6 70(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) THE VILLAGES 50 1 20(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) THE VILLAGES 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 4 29(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PATRICK AFB 34 4 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) FT MYERS FL 34 61 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) FT MYERS FL 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 59 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) VENICE FL 64 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 89 8(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) TAMPA FL 50 25 36(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) TAMPA FL 64 3 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CEDAR KEY FL 34 19 73(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) CEDAR KEY FL 50 2 51(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ST MARKS FL 34 1 20(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) APALACHICOLA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 27
2021-07-06 22:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 616 WTNT35 KNHC 062038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 83.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Georgia from the Mouth of St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Seven Mile Bridge has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key * West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River * Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a generally northward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Buoy 42023 recently measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) gusting to 78 mph (126 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-07-06 22:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 062037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM THE MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * COAST OF GEORGIA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA...TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 83.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 83.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 83.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.5N 83.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.3N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.8N 78.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.4N 75.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.5N 71.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-07-06 20:05:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 061804 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Special Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 This is a special advisory to issue a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast. Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds in Elsa are now near 60 kt. However, the aircraft has not yet had a chance to sample the northeastern quadrant, so it is possible that higher winds exist. Although the environment is not conducive for significant strengthening before landfall, only a slight increase in intensity would result in Elsa becoming a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday. Aside from the small adjustments to the 12- and 24-intensity forecasts to reflect the revised current intensity estimate, no other changes have been made to the official forecast. The NHC track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the 1500 UTC advisory. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves near or along the western Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread northward along much of the west coast of the state through Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia coast and portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1800Z 25.4N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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