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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-09 15:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 14:55:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Nov 2020 14:49:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 37
2020-11-09 15:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 091449 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 Eta's overall appearance in satellite radar imagery has become quite fragmented, with inner-core convection having become vertically shallow and broken due to mid-level dry air entrainment. Some of the recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight-level data indicate that dry air has worked way down to the 850-mb level based dewpoint spreads of more than 8 deg C. In the northeastern quadrant, a large curved convective band persists that has produced widespread rainfall amounts exceeding 10 inches along with strong gusty winds across portions of the southern Florida peninsula. However, even that band of thunderstorms has become less pronounced in both satellite radar imagery over the past few hours. Doppler velocities over land and over water have also come decreased significantly, and the latest reconnaissance flight-level (58 kt) and SFMR surface wind data (49 kt) supports lowering the intensity to 50 kt. The decrease in intensity is also supported by the gradual rise in the central pressure, which is now up to 994 mb. Eta has finally made the expected southwestward turn, and the initial motion is now 235/12 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and near the U.S. east coast is expected to keep Eta moving southwestward for the next 24-36 hours, accompanied by a steady decrease in forward speed. Steering currents are forecast to collapse by 36-48 hours, causing Eta to possibly stall and/or make a small loop just northwest of western Cuba. By 60 hours and beyond, a broad mid-latitude trough currently located over the Rocky Mountains is forecast to move eastward and gradually erode the portion of the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, allowing Eta slowly move northward to north-northeastward through 20 hours. However, there remains considerable divergence between the global models on days 4 and 5 with regards to how far north Eta will move, with the ECMWF showing a more northward progression while the GFS and UKMET models show the trough lifting out and not eroding the ridge as much. For now, the official forecast track remains a compromise of these two extremes, and shows a slow poleward progression on days 3-5, similar to the consensus models TCVA and NOAA-HCCA. Eta could still re-strengthen some during the 24-48 hour period when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and the wind shear gradually decrease to less than 10 kt. However, occasional intrusions of very dry air will likely continue to plague the system, which would prevent any rapid intensification from occurring and could keep Eta from regaining hurricane status. By 48 hours and beyond, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air should cause a gradual weakening of the cyclone through end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern and central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 24.6N 83.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 24.5N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 25.6N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 26.5N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 27.2N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 28.4N 84.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 29.6N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2020-11-09 15:46:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 091446 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 2(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) W PALM BEACH 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MARATHON FL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 3(14) 2(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 34 4 4( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 34 3 2( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 10(29) 4(33) 2(35) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 11(23) 7(30) 2(32) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 12(19) 6(25) 4(29) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 7(25) 4(29) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 16(28) 7(35) 3(38) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 7(20) 2(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 5(21) 2(23) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 14(16) 9(25) 2(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 2 4( 6) 9(15) 2(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-09 15:46:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 10:00 AM EST Mon Nov 9 the center of Eta was located near 24.6, -83.4 with movement SW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 37
2020-11-09 15:46:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020 ...ETA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 83.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for all of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, excluding the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 83.4 West. Eta is moving toward the southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move away from the Florida Keys and south Florida today, and will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday. Data from the aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and tonight. Some slight strengthening is forecast on Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday morning: The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm)), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across saturated urban areas of southeast Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for central Florida. WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today over parts of south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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