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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 33

2020-11-08 15:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 081456 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 79.2W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 79.2W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.1N 79.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.5N 82.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 100SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 85.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 26.2N 84.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 26.9N 83.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 79.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)

2020-11-08 12:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ETA INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 7:00 AM EST Sun Nov 8 the center of Eta was located near 21.9, -79.1 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 32A

2020-11-08 12:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081152 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 ...ETA INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 79.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF CANAGUA CUBA ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood including Florida Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located over Cuba near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 79.1 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move across east-central Cuba during the next few hours and then move over the Florida Straits later this morning. Eta is forecast to pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next few hours as Eta moves across Cuba. Re-strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Atlantic Ocean, and Eta is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near or over the Florida Keys. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday morning: Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm). The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...2-4 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba during the next few hours and in the watch area in Florida by early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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