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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 33
2020-11-08 16:55:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081554 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 33...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Corrected distances from Canagua Cuba ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 79.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF CANAGUA CUBA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood including Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Cuban radars indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located just north of central Cuba near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 79.2 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a northwestward turn by this evening, and a westward motion by early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas today, pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eta could become a hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday morning: Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm). The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...2-4 ft Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Keys by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida by early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-08 16:09:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Nov 2020 15:09:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Nov 2020 15:24:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2020-11-08 16:04:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 081504 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 7(11) 4(15) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 3(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 6(17) 4(21) PATRICK AFB 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 2(11) 6(17) 4(21) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) 2(15) 6(21) 3(24) W PALM BEACH 34 6 16(22) 2(24) X(24) 2(26) 5(31) 2(33) FT LAUDERDALE 34 18 28(46) 1(47) 1(48) 2(50) 2(52) 2(54) FT LAUDERDALE 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 9 24(33) 1(34) X(34) 1(35) 2(37) 1(38) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 17 42(59) 1(60) X(60) 1(61) 1(62) X(62) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 36 61(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 1(98) MARATHON FL 50 4 76(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) MARATHON FL 64 X 20(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) KEY WEST FL 34 8 85(93) 1(94) X(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) KEY WEST FL 50 X 76(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 1(79) KEY WEST FL 64 X 21(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NAPLES FL 34 3 50(53) 3(56) 1(57) 4(61) 3(64) 3(67) NAPLES FL 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 2(12) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X 12(12) 1(13) 1(14) 4(18) 6(24) 5(29) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 19(20) 5(25) 2(27) 10(37) 9(46) 6(52) VENICE FL 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) TAMPA FL 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 7(20) 11(31) 5(36) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 10(21) 6(27) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 4(17) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 5(26) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 3(15) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) GRAND BAHAMA 34 8 5(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 3(18) 2(20) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 22 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 1(25) 1(26) ANDROS 34 36 1(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 1(39) GREAT EXUMA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 13(30) 15(45) 2(47) 1(48) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 2 28(30) 14(44) 4(48) 8(56) 2(58) 1(59) HAVANA 50 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 4(16) X(16) 1(17) HAVANA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 6(16) 8(24) 2(26) 1(27) CIENFUEGOS 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Eta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-11-08 16:04:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 08 Nov 2020 15:04:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 33
2020-11-08 16:00:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 081500 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Eta remains a sheared tropical storm, although the low-level center has become embedded a little farther into the convective cloud mass. Cuban radar data from Camaguey indicate that Eta's center has moved back over water and is now located just offshore the east-central coast of Cuba. Radar imagery also indicates that a fairly impressive band of deep convection wraps more than half way around the center, especially in the western semicircle. Cirrus outflow has expanded in the southern semicircle, and indication that the shear may be decreasing somewhat. However, water vapor satellite imagery still shows a fair amount of dry mid-/upper-level air impinging on the cyclone from the southwest. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a report of 850-mb flight-level winds of 70 kt and reliable SFMR winds of 55-57 kt. The initial motion estimate is now 355/10 kt. Eta is interacting with a sharp mid-/upper-level, negatively tilted trough that extends east-southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The eastern end of the trough is forecast to develop into a cutoff low alter today, which will act to turn Eta northwestward by this afternoon, and westward later tonight. The complex interaction between these two features is forecast to continue through 72 hours, resulting in the development of weak steering currents and Eta slowing down and possibly stalling near or just west of the Florida Keys by day 3. Thereafter, the global and regional models show widely varying solutions ranging from a motion toward the south or southwest (UKMET) toward Yucatan, to slow northward (ECMWF) or northeastward motion (GFS/HWRF) over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast lies to the north, or to the right, of the 12Z interpolated models and consensus models (due to the interpolater possibly having some problems handling the sharp westward turn that Eta is forecast to make), and lies close to the previous advisory track and a blend of the operational 00Z ECMWF, and 06Z GFS and UKMET model tracks. Now that Eta's center is back over water, gradual re-strengthening is expected to begin later this afternoon. The global models are forecasting to vertical wind shear to steadily decrease across the center for the next next 48 hours as Eta moves north of the cutoff low and into a col small region region between the low and an upper-level trough moving eastward across northern Florida. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance indicate that the shear will decrease to less than 10 kt by 36 hours, but the shear will likely decrease sooner since SHIPS model uses winds that extend out 500 km (270 nmi) from the center, which are not always representative of the wind flow near the center. With favorable low-shear conditions and sea-surface temperatures warmer than 28 deg C, the only hindering factor appears to be proximity to dry mid-level air, which could get entrained into the inner core and inhibit development of deep convection in that part of the cyclone. For now, the new NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, which is above the model guidance up to 36 hours and a little below the guidance thereafter, and shows Eta at 65 kt or Category 1 hurricane intensity in the 24-72 hour period. However, it is certainly possibly that if dry air does not penetrate into Eta's inner core later today, then the cyclone could become a hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight. For this reason, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the Florida Keys. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys by early Monday where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin in the Florida Keys by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are also expected and hurricane conditions are possible for portions of the southern Florida peninsula where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect. 4. A dangerous storm surge is expected in portions of the Florida Keys where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning and Watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 22.5N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 24.1N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 24.5N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 24.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 26.2N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 26.9N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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