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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32

2020-11-08 09:47:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 080847 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 4(15) 4(19) PATRICK AFB 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 4(15) 4(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) 4(18) 4(22) W PALM BEACH 34 1 18(19) 4(23) 1(24) 2(26) 2(28) 2(30) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 34(35) 4(39) 1(40) 2(42) 1(43) 2(45) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X 27(27) 3(30) X(30) 1(31) 1(32) 1(33) MIAMI FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 44(44) 3(47) X(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 1 80(81) 6(87) X(87) 1(88) X(88) 1(89) MARATHON FL 50 X 51(51) 7(58) X(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) MARATHON FL 64 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 34 1 58(59) 23(82) 1(83) 1(84) 1(85) X(85) KEY WEST FL 50 X 29(29) 23(52) 1(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) KEY WEST FL 64 X 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 1(16) NAPLES FL 34 1 29(30) 20(50) 2(52) 2(54) 4(58) 3(61) NAPLES FL 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 2(10) 1(11) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 2(14) 5(19) 4(23) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 7( 7) 11(18) 4(22) 7(29) 7(36) 6(42) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 8(25) 6(31) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 8(17) 6(23) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 11(20) 5(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 4(17) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 9(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 2(15) 1(16) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 4 6(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) ANDROS 34 15 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 1(25) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 13(25) 6(31) 1(32) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 1 7( 8) 22(30) 5(35) 7(42) 3(45) 2(47) HAVANA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) HAVANA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 6(17) 2(19) 1(20) CIENFUEGOS 34 11 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) CAMAGUEY 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 32

2020-11-08 09:46:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 080846 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 79.3W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 79.3W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 79.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.5N 81.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 100SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 83.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.2N 84.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N 85.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 85.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.8N 85.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 26.7N 84.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 79.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)

2020-11-08 06:39:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ETA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CUBA IN A FEW HOURS... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA... As of 1:00 AM EST Sun Nov 8 the center of Eta was located near 20.9, -79.8 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 31A

2020-11-08 06:39:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080539 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 ...ETA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CUBA IN A FEW HOURS... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 79.8W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood including Florida Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 79.8 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba during the next few hours and then move into the Florida Straits later this morning. Eta is forecast to pass near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible after landfall in Cuba, but Eta is forecast to re-strengthen later today and could be near hurricane strength as it approaches and moves near or over Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning: Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible for Central Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...2-4 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba during the next few hours and in the watch area in Florida by early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening and tonight over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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