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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 22
2019-11-24 21:58:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 242058 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 ...SEBASTIEN OR ITS REMNANTS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.2N 32.5W ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Sebastien. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 32.5 West. Sebastien is moving toward the east-northeast near 39 mph (63 km/h). An even faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sebastien will pass near the western Azores tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. A slow decrease in the maximum winds is expected during the next day or so. Sebastien is forecast to become post-tropical by early Monday, and it could degenerate into a trough of low pressure at any time during the next couple of days. Regardless of status, Sebastien or its remnants will likely continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds for at least a couple more days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND AND RAIN: Sebastien or its remnants are expected to bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores through Monday morning. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. SURF: Swells generated by Sebastien are expected to affect the Azores during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 22
2019-11-24 21:58:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 242058 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SEBASTIEN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 32.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 34 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 240SE 420SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 32.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 42.2N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 160SE 160SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 46.3N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 240SE 240SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.2N 32.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-24 15:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Nov 2019 14:42:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Nov 2019 15:24:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 21
2019-11-24 15:41:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 241441 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 It is not clear if Sebastien is a closed cyclone at the surface. The fast forward motion of the cyclone (28 kt) may have caused it to open into a trough of low pressure. The ship MSC Beijing (DFDE2) recently reported northwest winds about 70 n mi north-northeast of the cyclone's estimated center, and it has been difficult to identify easterly winds in visible imagery this morning. That said, ASCAT data was inconclusive regarding the state of Sebastien's circulation and the system is still producing some deep convection near its center. AMSU data at 1135 UTC also indicated that Sebastien still has a weak warm core. For those reasons, it appears prudent to maintain advisories at this time. As mentioned above, Sebastien is moving very quickly northeastward and it should accelerate in that direction during the next 24 h. This is shown by all of the dynamical models which are finally in decent agreement. Based on simulated satellite imagery, it appears that the cyclone will continue to produce central deep convection for the next 12 h or so, and extratropical transition is forecast to finish within 24 h. Although an extratropical point is shown at 36 h for continuity purposes, in reality Sebastien will more likely open into a trough of low pressure, given the forecast forward motion of nearly 40 kt relative to its 50 kt forecast intensity at this time tomorrow. This could happen at any time. Regardless of whether it is a tropical cyclone, extratropical cyclone, or a remnant trough, Sebastien or its remnants will likely bring gusty winds and heavy rains to portions of the Azores later today and tonight. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 37.4N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 39.8N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 43.8N 22.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0000Z 47.7N 14.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-24 15:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEBASTIEN OR ITS REMNANTS FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Nov 24 the center of Sebastien was located near 37.4, -37.0 with movement NE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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