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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 17
2019-11-23 15:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 990 WTNT25 KNHC 231451 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 47.7W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 47.7W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 48.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.1N 44.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 34.4N 40.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 36.8N 34.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 39.3N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 170SE 170SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 47.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-23 13:31:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF SEBASTIEN FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... As of 8:30 AM AST Sat Nov 23 the center of Sebastien was located near 29.5, -48.5 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Update Statement
2019-11-23 13:31:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 830 AM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 280 WTNT65 KNHC 231231 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 830 AM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 ...CENTER OF SEBASTIEN FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... Recent microwave and visible satellite imagery indicate that the center of Sebastien is moving faster than forecast and is now located northeast of previous estimates. This will be reflected in the next advisory issued by 11 AM AST (1500 UTC). SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 48.5W ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-23 09:34:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Nov 2019 08:34:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Nov 2019 09:24:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-11-23 09:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 606 WTNT45 KNHC 230833 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 AM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 The cloud pattern of Sebastien has changed significantly overnight. Deep convection has decreased substantially during the past several hours and the remaining thunderstorms are organized around a mid-level eye feature seen in satellite images. Model vertical cross sections indicate that Sebastien is extremely titled with the low-level center, although I can't see it, likely well displaced to the southwest of the mid-level eye. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on the ASCAT data that came in a little after 00 Z, but it looks like Sebastien is on a weakening trend. Strong southwesterly vertically wind shear of about 40 kt is responsible for the titled structure of the cyclone. Since the shear is not expected to let up and because Sebastien is headed for steadily cooler waters, it seems reasonable to assume that weakening is likely. Although the models agree that Sebastien should slowly lose its strength, it remains unclear if Sebastien will transition to a post-tropical cyclone before it opens up into a trough during the next few days. The NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by day 3, but it is certainty possible that it dissipates before then. The tropical storm is moving east-northeastward at 15 kt ahead of a cold front and trough. This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days as Sebastien becomes more embedded in the faster mid-latitude flow. The models are in relatively good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. The initial wind radii were modified based on the aforementioned ASCAT passes, and the 12-ft sea radii were adjusted based on ship and altimeter data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 27.8N 50.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 29.4N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 31.6N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 34.0N 38.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 37.0N 31.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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