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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-11-20 09:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200836 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0900 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 61.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 61.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 60.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.7N 61.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.2N 60.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.3N 58.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.7N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 61.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-11-20 03:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200237 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019 There hasn't much of a change with Sebastien for most of tonight, with the center still exposed to the northwest of a large area of deep convection. Recently, the low-level center appears to be slowing down and gaining some latitude as convection re-fires near the center. The initial wind speed will stay 40 kt, pending receipt of ASCAT data later this evening. The initial motion has been more to the west during the past few hours, but a longer-term motion is 290/8. Sebastien should move generally northwestward on Wednesday, northward on Wednesday night and much faster to the northeast on Thursday as the storm moves along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge and then ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The forecast has been adjusted westward in the short-term due mostly to the initial motion, and then eastward in the longer term due to models suggesting the storm may stay a little more ahead of the cold front than before. These forecast changes, however, are fairly typical for a disorganized system. Sebastien has some chance to intensify by late tomorrow as the shear vector and the storm motion vector line up around the same time as the upper-level divergence is forecast to increase. This should cause the cyclone to strengthen, and the new forecast is closely aligned with the previous one. Around 48 hours, Sebastien is expected to become an extratropical cyclone as it is overtaken by a cold front, and then become absorbed by the larger front on Friday. The latest NHC wind speed forecast is close to the model consensus, but below the regional hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 20.7N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 21.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 22.9N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 24.4N 59.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 27.2N 56.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-20 03:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 02:36:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 02:36:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-20 03:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEBASTIEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Nov 19 the center of Sebastien was located near 20.7, -60.6 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 3
2019-11-20 03:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019 ...SEBASTIEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 60.6W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 60.6 West. Sebastien is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn to the north is expected by late Wednesday followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Sebastien is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days and become absorbed by a cold front on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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