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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-21 15:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2019 14:54:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2019 14:54:26 GMT
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sebastien
Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-11-21 15:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 211449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 Sebastien continues to produce a large area of deep convection over the eastern semicircle of the circulation, but the banding features are not very well defined. The intensity estimate remains at 50 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A diffluent upper-level wind environment and warm waters are expected to bring about some strengthening through tonight, however the window of opportunity for strengthening will probably close tomorrow morning. After that time, drier air and strong shear should cause gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus. In a couple of days, the GFS shows Sebastien becoming embedded in a frontal zone, signifying the transition to an extratropical cyclone as shown in the NHC forecast. The ECMWF model suggests that this event could occur later, but the current close proximity of a front to Sebastian argues for extratropical transition to occur within 48 hours. The circulation is a bit elongated from south to north, and the center remains difficult to locate. This results in a greater than normal uncertainty in the initial motion, and my best guess is 030/7 kt. A turn toward the northeast, with acceleration, is expected during the next couple of days due to the influence of a mid-level trough. There is considerable along-track model spread, with the ECMWF forecast being much slower than the majority of the guidance. The official forecast is somewhat slower than the dynamical model consensus out of respect for that typically reliable model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 23.5N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 25.0N 58.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 27.2N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 30.0N 50.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 33.2N 45.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1200Z 39.7N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-21 15:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEBASTIEN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Nov 21 the center of Sebastien was located near 23.5, -60.5 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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sebastien
Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 9
2019-11-21 15:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 211448 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 ...SEBASTIEN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 60.5W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 60.5 West. Sebastien is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Sebastien is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, but a weakening trend is expected to begin by late Friday. The system is likely to become an extratropical cyclone by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-11-21 15:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 211448 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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