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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2019-11-22 03:46:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 685 FONT15 KNHC 220246 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)

2019-11-22 03:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SEBASTIEN MOVING FASTER WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Nov 21 the center of Sebastien was located near 24.7, -57.8 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 11

2019-11-22 03:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220245 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 ...SEBASTIEN MOVING FASTER WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 57.8W ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 57.8 West. Sebastien is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast overnight, with weakening beginning by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 11

2019-11-22 03:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220245 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 57.8W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 57.8W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 58.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 26.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.0N 51.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.3N 47.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.7N 43.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 37.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 57.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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