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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)

2021-09-05 10:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO LARGE SWELLS FROM LARRY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 5 the center of Larry was located near 18.8, -49.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 19

2021-09-05 10:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050849 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021 ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO LARGE SWELLS FROM LARRY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 49.0W ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 49.0 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, although fluctuations in intensity will be possible. Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). A drifting buoy near the center of Larry recently measured a pressure of 962.9 mb (28.43 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles today, and will spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2021-09-05 10:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 050849 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 17(34) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-09-05 10:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050845 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 49.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 49.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 48.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 52.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 53.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 55.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 56.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 36.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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