je.st

Home › nestor

Tag: nestor

Tropical Storm Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2019-10-18 22:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 182031 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 21(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 12(12) 17(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 20(20) 14(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 25(26) 7(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 2( 2) 30(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 17(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 10 13(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 56(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 3 61(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ST MARKS FL 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 60 29(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) APALACHICOLA 50 2 20(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) APALACHICOLA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 83 7(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) GFMX 290N 850W 50 12 24(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 50 16(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PANAMA CITY FL 50 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 14 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 870W 34 58 X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) GFMX 290N 870W 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tags: number speed wind storm

Tropical Storm Nestor Forecast Advisory Number 6

2019-10-18 22:30:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 182030 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NESTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM GRAND ISLE...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...AND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WEST OF NAVARRE...FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NAVARRE FLORIDA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 88.5W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 88.5W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 89.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 28.9N 86.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 160SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.1N 83.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.4N 80.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.4N 75.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.6N 68.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 88.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Summary for Tropical Storm Nestor (AT1/AL162019)

2019-10-18 19:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NESTOR... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Nestor was located near 26.3, -89.5 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical nestor

Tropical Storm Nestor Public Advisory Number 5A

2019-10-18 19:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181732 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NESTOR... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 89.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite imagery and ship and buoy data indicate that the circulation of the low pressure system has become better defined, and the disturbance is now Tropical Storm Nestor. At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 89.5 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday as it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected later today, with weakening forecast after Nestor moves inland. Nestor is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), mainly to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area by later today and this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight and early Saturday near the Florida Gulf Coast from the central panhandle to western parts of the Florida peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: number public storm advisory