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Summary for Tropical Storm Nestor (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-19 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... ...STORM SURGE AND WIND EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOON... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Nestor was located near 28.5, -87.0 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nestor Public Advisory Number 7
2019-10-19 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA... ...STORM SURGE AND WIND EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 87.0W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 87.0 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later Saturday and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight before Nestor reaches the coast. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently reported a minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area within the next few hours, and continue through Saturday afternoon. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States on Saturday. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through Saturday morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Nestor Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-10-19 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NESTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NAVARRE FLORIDA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 87.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 87.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 87.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.2N 85.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 160SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.7N 82.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.9N 78.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 36.5N 73.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nestor (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-19 01:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... ...STORM SURGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Nestor was located near 27.6, -87.6 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nestor Public Advisory Number 6A
2019-10-19 01:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 182355 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 6A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Corrected typo in Hazards Affecting Land Section ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... ...STORM SURGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 87.6W ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 87.6 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later Saturday and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight before Nestor reaches the coast. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later tonight, and continue through early Saturday. Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States on Saturday. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through Saturday morning across the northern and central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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