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Tropical Storm Nestor Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-10-19 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 02:43:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nestor Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-10-19 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 02:43:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nestor Graphics
2019-10-19 04:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 02:36:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 02:36:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nestor Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-10-19 04:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nestor Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters are investigating Nestor this evening, and they have found that the minimum pressure has dropped to 996 mb, 3 mb lower than this afternoon, but they have not found higher winds yet. Based on preliminary data from both aircraft, the initial wind speed remains 50 kt. The Air Force also reported that there is a lot of lightning occurring in the thunderstorms on Nestor's east side. Nestor remains a lopsided tropical storm, with very intense deep convection extending well to the east of the center with only small areas of convection near and to the west of the center. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to strong westerly wind shear associated with a nearby shortwave trough. Doppler radar imagery indicates that rain bands are now spreading inland over much of the eastern portions of the Gulf coast, and surface observations show the winds increasing near the coast, but they are still not quite at tropical storm strength. Water vapor satellite images show that the shortwave trough is almost co-located with Nestor, which is likely part of the reason why the minimum pressure has fallen. Even though it is not explicitly reflected in the forecast, Nestor could strengthen a little before the storm makes landfall. However, significant intensification seems unlikely as the shortwave trough is expected to bypass the cyclone soon, leaving the storm in a less favorable environment of upper-level confluence and drier air. After landfall, weakening is forecast and the models suggest that Nestor should lose its tropical characteristics on Saturday when it tracks across the southeast U.S. The weaker extratropical cyclone is expected to dissipate or merge with a cold front in about 4 days. The tropical storm is moving quickly northeastward at about 20 kt. The models are in good agreement that this general motion should continue for the next couple of days, taking the center of the storm inland over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning and across portions of Georgia and the Carolinas later Saturday and Sunday. The weakening system is expected to slow down and turn eastward over the western Atlantic early next week before it merges with a cold front. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models. Given the structure of Nestor, dangerous storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will occur along a large portion of the Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center through Saturday. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are spreading across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast United States coast into early Sunday morning. 4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 28.5N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 30.2N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 32.7N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1200Z 34.9N 78.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0000Z 36.5N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0000Z 37.5N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-10-19 04:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 190235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 20(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 14(14) 17(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 18(18) 15(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 28(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 29(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 12(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 20(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) WAYCROSS GA 34 6 36(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSONVILLE 34 4 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GAINESVILLE FL 34 12 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 26 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 80 12(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 10 15(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 84 8(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ST MARKS FL 50 12 16(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ST MARKS FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) APALACHICOLA 50 34 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) APALACHICOLA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 290N 850W 50 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PANAMA CITY FL 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) PANAMA CITY FL 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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