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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 5
2018-09-03 16:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 225 WTNT32 KNHC 031447 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...GORDON LASHING SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... ...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 81.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Shell Beach, Louisiana, to the Mississippi-Alabama border. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward from the Mississippi-Alabama border to Navarre, Florida. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to the Okaloosa-Walton County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Mississippi-Alabama border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of the Mississippi-Alabama border to Navarre A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Golden Beach to Bonita Beach * Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay * Okaloosa-Walton County Line westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 81.3 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early afternoon, reach the warning area along the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. strengthening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours, and Gordon could be near hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the central Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to the Mississippi-Alabama border...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through early Thursday. These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through the afternoon in the warning areas across South Florida and the Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the central Gulf Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions possible late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane watch area. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-09-03 16:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 161 FONT12 KNHC 031447 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HOMESTEAD ARB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 34 46 X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) FT MYERS FL 34 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) VENICE FL 34 31 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 24(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 34(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 12(12) 75(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 1( 1) 46(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 52(52) 15(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 45(45) 25(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 25(25) 36(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 16(16) 16(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 8(38) X(38) X(38) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-09-03 16:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 542 WTNT22 KNHC 031443 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SHELL BEACH TO MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF SHELL BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER * EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO NAVARRE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH * CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY * OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE WESTWARD TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY... LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 81.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 81.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 80.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 83.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 28.1N 86.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.9N 88.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.3N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.9N 93.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 34.8N 94.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 37.6N 95.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 81.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-03 14:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 678 WTNT42 KNHC 031236 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida, along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that the disturbance has developed a closed surface circulation and a well-defined center. Recent observations from a Weatherflow site at Carys Fort Reef and radar data support increasing the maximum winds to at least 40 kt. As a result of these data, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named system of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Gordon. The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt and the previous forecast track remains unchanged. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward in the first 24 to 36 hours to account for the initial increase in intensity. Some additional adjustments may be required after the reconnaissance aircraft completes its mission and provides more detailed information on the stricture and intensity of Gordon. Key Messages: 1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions to portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for these areas. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in those areas beginning late Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next few days, including areas that have already received heavy rainfall from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should monitor products from their local National Weather Service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1230Z 25.1N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 25.7N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 27.2N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 28.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 30.4N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 33.0N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0600Z 34.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/0600Z 35.5N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-09-03 14:27:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1230 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 726 FONT12 KNHC 031227 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 1230 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 1230Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MIAMI FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 29 X(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) KEY WEST FL 34 15 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NAPLES FL 34 23 8(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) FT MYERS FL 34 9 9(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) VENICE FL 34 2 16(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) TAMPA FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 16(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X 11(11) 23(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 26(26) 24(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 7( 7) 27(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 9(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 8( 8) 58(66) 5(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 20(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 6(49) X(49) X(49) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) 8(56) X(56) X(56) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) 10(57) X(57) X(57) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 17(41) 1(42) X(42) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 9(47) X(47) X(47) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 13(40) X(40) X(40) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 9(30) X(30) X(30) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) X(27) X(27) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) 1(17) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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