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Tropical Depression Irwin Public Advisory Number 41
2017-08-01 16:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 011438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Irwin Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 ...IRWIN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 129.2W ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Irwin was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 129.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northwest should begin later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Irwin is forecast to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 41
2017-08-01 16:37:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 011437 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 129.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 129.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 129.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.0N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 129.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 40
2017-08-01 10:54:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010854 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 Irwin stubbornly remains a tropical cyclone this morning. The systems continues to produce a small area of deep convection near the center despite being over SSTs of around 22 deg C. The convection has gradually waned over the past 24 hours, but recent ASCAT data indicate that the maximum winds remain around 40 kt. Irwin should lose all of its remaining convection later today, and should become post-tropical within the next 12 to 24 hours while it moves over even colder waters. As a result, the system is forecast to gradually spin down, with the remnant circulation dissipating in 2 to 3 days. A mid-level high pressure area to the northeast of Irwin continues to steer the cyclone north-northwestward. This general motion is forecast to continue this morning. As Irwin weakens and becomes a shallow system, it should slow down and turn northwestward. The track guidance remains in agreement on this scenario and no significant change to the previous forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 24.9N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 26.2N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 27.5N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z 28.4N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0600Z 29.2N 132.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
2017-08-01 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 08:49:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 09:30:19 GMT
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irwin
Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2017-08-01 10:49:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 010849 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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