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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-30 16:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN NOT WEAKENING YET... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 the center of Irwin was located near 17.9, -125.4 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 33
2017-07-30 16:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 301435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 ...IRWIN NOT WEAKENING YET... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 125.4W ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 125.4 West. Irwin is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. Recent satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as the tropical storm moves over colder water, and Irwin is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 33
2017-07-30 16:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 301434 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.4W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.4W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.1W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.4N 126.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.7N 127.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N 128.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.7N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.9N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
2017-07-30 10:56:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Jul 2017 08:56:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Jul 2017 08:56:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-07-30 10:53:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 300852 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Infrared and earlier microwave satellite pictures show that Irwin remains fairly well organized. An 0308 UTC AMSU microwave overpass revealed a curved band over the southeastern portion of the circulation and a mid-level eye-like feature. Recent ASCAT data suggest that Irwin is slightly stronger than earlier estimates, so the initial wind speed has been set at 50 kt for this advisory. Irwin is forecast to move north of the 26 deg C isotherm later this morning, and over even colder waters within the next 36 to 48 hours. As a result, Irwin is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low late Monday. The new NHC wind speed forecast is identical to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus aids. Irwin has begun its much anticipated northward acceleration, with recent satellite fixes indicating a motion of 350/8 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to turn north-northwestward today and continue to accelerate in south-southeasterly low- to mid-level flow in the wake of Hilary. In 36 to 48 hours, Irwin is forecast to turn northwestward and slow down when it approaches Hilary's remnant low. The dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered through 48 h, with some spread later in the period. The NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 17.1N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 18.7N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 20.9N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 23.2N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 25.2N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z 27.5N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0600Z 28.5N 133.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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