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Tropical Storm IRWIN Public Advisory Number 34
2017-07-30 22:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 302031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 ...IRWIN HOLDING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 125.6W ABOUT 1060 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 125.6 West. Irwin is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as the tropical storm moves over even colder water, and Irwin is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Advisory Number 34
2017-07-30 22:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 302031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 125.6W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 125.6W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 125.4W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.3N 126.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.6N 127.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.7N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.4N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.1N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 125.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
2017-07-30 16:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Jul 2017 14:42:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Jul 2017 15:31:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 33
2017-07-30 16:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 301436 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Even though Irwin is crossing the 26 deg C isotherm, it does not appear to be weakening yet. In fact, recent microwave data indicate the tropical storm has a mid-level eye, which has occasionally appeared in geostationary satellite images. The system is still producing a fair amount of deep convection, especially to the south of the center. The latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 3.5/55 kt and accordingly, the initial intensity is set a bit higher to 55 kt. This wind speed estimate is also in agreement with ASCAT data from several hours ago that showed maximum winds near 50 kt. Despite the recent increase in intensity, Irwin is expected to begin weakening soon as it moves over even cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass. The storm is likely to become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours when it will be over SSTs near 22 deg C. Most of the global models show the remnant low dissipating in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance, and it is largely unchanged from the previous prediction. Irwin is moving north-northwestward, or 345 degrees, at 8 kt. The system is embedded in south-southeasterly flow in the wake of Hilary, and it is expected to remain in this steering flow for another day or two. Once Irwin becomes a remnant low, the shallow system is expected to turn a little to the left and slow down as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the north and east of the previous one, to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.9N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 19.4N 126.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 21.7N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 23.9N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 25.7N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1200Z 27.9N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 133.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2017-07-30 16:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 301435 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 11 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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