je.st
news
Tag: miriam
Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 5
2018-08-27 10:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 378 WTPZ35 KNHC 270835 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...MIRIAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 129.2W ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 129.2 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Miriam is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-08-27 10:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 377 WTPZ25 KNHC 270835 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0900 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.2W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.2W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 128.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.8N 133.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.8N 135.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 137.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.7N 140.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 141.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.0N 142.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 129.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Miriam Graphics
2018-08-27 04:45:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 27 Aug 2018 02:45:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 27 Aug 2018 03:27:51 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-08-27 04:44:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 372 WTPZ45 KNHC 270243 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 The overall cloud pattern of Miriam has continued to gradually improve this evening. However, light northerly shear of about 10 kt, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS, seems to be preventing the cyclone from strengthening at a more rapid pace. Earlier ASCAT data and a more recent partial AMSR overpass indicated that the low-level center of Miriam is slightly displaced to the northwest of most of the deep convection, but is still well-embedded within the cirrus canopy. A consensus of objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates suggests that Miriam has strengthened a little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt. The tropical storm is still moving westward at around 12 kt, and all indications are that this motion will continue for the next few days. By day 4, Miriam should turn northward as it reaches a break in the subtropical ridge created by an extensive mid- to upper-level low located over the central North Pacific. The track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario, but still differs on the exact timing and location of the northward turn. The NHC forecast therefore remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is essentially a blend of the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids and the previous forecast. Steady strengthening is still likely for the next day or two. While Miriam's structure does not appear to be conducive for rapid intensification at the moment, this could change quickly and with little warning due to the small size of the cyclone's inner-core. The model spread increases from 36 h onward, with the dynamical models indicating continued intensification to major hurricane strength, while the statistical guidance is much lower. Regardless of Miriam's peak intensity, by the end of the forecast, steady weakening is likely as Miriam encounters lower SSTs and higher shear. The NHC forecast continues to favor the higher dynamical models for the first couple of days, and closely follows the intensity consensus after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 13.8N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 13.9N 129.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 13.7N 131.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 13.8N 134.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 13.9N 136.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 14.3N 139.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 16.8N 141.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 21.0N 141.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-08-27 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 873 FOPZ15 KNHC 270242 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0300 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 26 13(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 130W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 43(46) 29(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 57(62) 18(80) 1(81) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 19(48) 2(50) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) 1(30) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 25(41) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Sites : [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] next »