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Summary for Tropical Storm Miriam (EP5/EP152018)
2018-08-27 04:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MIRIAM GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 the center of Miriam was located near 13.8, -127.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 4
2018-08-27 04:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 486 WTPZ35 KNHC 270242 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 ...MIRIAM GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 127.9W ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 127.9 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Miriam is expected to become a hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-08-27 04:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 485 WTPZ25 KNHC 270242 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0300 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.9N 129.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.7N 131.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.8N 134.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.9N 136.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.3N 139.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 16.8N 141.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 21.0N 141.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 127.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Miriam Graphics
2018-08-26 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Aug 2018 20:33:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Aug 2018 21:27:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-26 22:31:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 810 WTPZ45 KNHC 262031 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 Miriam continues to gradually become better organized. The latest visible satellite images show a well-defined curved band that wraps about three-quarters of the way around the center. Despite the improvement in organization, very recent ASCAT passes show maximum winds of about 35 kt. Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at 40 kt as a compromise between the ASCAT data and the higher Dvorak-based estimates. The tropical storm is moving westward at about 12 kt. This westward motion should continue during the next few days while a deep-layer ridge remains anchored to the north of the tropical cyclone. After that time, the storm is forecast to turn to the northwest and then the north as a mid- to upper-level low causes a significant break in the subtropical ridge. Although the models agree on this scenario, there are some differences in where and when Miriam will make the northward turn. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, near the consensus aids. Steady strengthening is likely during the next couple of days due to the favorable environmental factors of low wind shear, high levels of moisture, and warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C. The latest intensity models all show Miriam becoming a hurricane, and the HWRF model shows the cyclone reaching major hurricane strength. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lean toward the higher end of the model guidance, and it is in best agreement with HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. By the end of the forecast period, when Miriam begins gaining latitude, slow weakening is expected due to a decrease in SSTs and higher shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.6N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 13.6N 128.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 13.7N 130.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 13.7N 132.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 13.7N 134.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 13.7N 138.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 19.7N 141.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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