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Tropical Storm Miriam Graphics
2018-08-28 22:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 20:36:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 21:27:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-28 22:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 991 WTPZ45 KNHC 282035 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 Northwesterly shear has taken a toll on Miriam, with visible satellite imagery depicting an exposed low-level center located northwest of the deep convection. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased to 3.0 by both SAB and TAFB, and a blend of the T- and CI-numbers yields an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. Model guidance suggests that the northwesterly shear that is currently affecting the cyclone will continue for at least the next 24 hours, but it could diminish slightly by late Wednesday, allowing for some modest strengthening in 36 to 48 hours. Thereafter, a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of the cyclone is expected to bring about increasing southwesterly shear over the system, which is expected to cause steady weakening in 3 to 4 days. The cyclone is then expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by 120 hours as shear increases even further, and the system crosses cooler SSTs. The official intensity forecast has been lowered for much of the forecast period, reflecting both the lowering of the initial intensity and the expected continuation of the shear. Although not explicitly shown in the official forecast, there is still some chance that Miriam could reach hurricane status in a couple of days, before the shear increases. The initial motion continues to be due west, or 270/11 kt, as Miriam continues to be steered around the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge. The track forecast philosophy for the next few days remains unchanged as the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough northeast of Hawaii weakens the western periphery of the ridge, and Miriam is forecast to turn northwestward then north-northwestward between the trough and ridge. There continues to be a large spread in the guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF and UKMET taking a more vertically coherent system northward, while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON turn Miriam westward as the system weakens and becomes a more shallow system. The latter scenario is beginning to seem more plausible and the NHC track forecast was adjusted southward and westward, but additional changes may be required if future forecasts shown a faster rate of demise. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 14.1N 136.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 14.2N 138.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 16.1N 141.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 19.3N 142.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 22.6N 143.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 26.0N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Miriam (EP5/EP152018)
2018-08-28 22:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MIRIAM BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 the center of Miriam was located near 14.1, -136.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 11
2018-08-28 22:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 860 WTPZ35 KNHC 282034 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 ...MIRIAM BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 136.4W ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 136.4 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected Wednesday night and Thursday, followed by a turn to the north on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Some gradual strengthening is possible Wednesday night and Thursday, before weakening begins on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto
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Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-08-28 22:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 861 FOPZ15 KNHC 282034 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 2 51(53) 23(76) 1(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 140W 50 X 8( 8) 19(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 140W 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20(23) 6(29) X(29) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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