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Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 14
2018-08-29 16:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 615 WTPZ35 KNHC 291434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 ...MIRIAM A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 139.4W ABOUT 1105 MI...1775 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 139.4 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and Miriam could become a hurricane by Thursday. Steady weakening is expected to begin on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-08-29 16:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 614 WTPZ25 KNHC 291434 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.4N 140.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.1N 141.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 142.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.9N 142.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 142.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.8N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 26.7N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 139.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-08-29 16:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 550 FOPZ15 KNHC 291434 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 91 1(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 140W 50 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 140W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 12(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 12(16) 2(18) X(18) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Miriam Graphics
2018-08-29 10:54:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Aug 2018 08:54:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Aug 2018 09:22:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-08-29 10:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 921 WTPZ45 KNHC 290853 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 At face value, Miriam seems to be getting a little better organized. Its convective canopy has been expanding during the past few hours, and continuous lightning strokes have been detected within a well-defined mid-level circulation. However, a 0637 UTC METOP-B microwave pass shows that Miriam remains a sheared cyclone, with the low-level center running out ahead of the deep convection. Still, with the expanding convection, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have risen to T3.5, and the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. Miriam is moving westward, or 275/11 kt, near the western end of the subtropical ridge. A deep-layer low located northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to cause Miriam to slow down and turn sharply northwestward and northward during the next 48 hours. The models are in excellent agreement on this scenario. After day 3, however, there are significant differences among the guidance, with the GFS taking a shallow cyclone almost due westward and the ECMWF continuing to accelerate a deeper Miriam northward on the east side of the deep-layer low. With these models being the most acute outliers, the NHC forecast track thinking continues to lie close to the tight clustering of the Florida State Superensemble, HCCA, and TVCX consensus aids. There is also greater-than-normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The SHIPS and LGEM models show northwesterly shear persisting over Miriam and only strengthen the cyclone slightly during the next 24-36 hours. The HWRF and HCCA models are still showing more significant strengthening, making Miriam a hurricane over the next day or two. I was tempted to explicitly show Miriam becoming a hurricane in the official forecast, but I decided to hold off since the cyclone just hasn't been able to display an improved structure as of yet. Even if some strengthening does occur, vertical shear is expected to increase substantially from 48 hours onward, which will cause fast weakening and Miriam likely degenerating into a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 14.2N 138.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 17.2N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 20.4N 142.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 23.0N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 26.5N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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