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Hurricane Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-08-29 23:49:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 673 WTPZ45 KNHC 292148 CCA TCDEP5 Hurricane Miriam Discussion Number 15...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Corrected WMO header in fourth paragraph The satellite presentation of Miriam has significantly improved over the past 12 hours or so. Several microwave images received since the release of the previous advisory revealed a significant increase in organization with convection wrapping nearly completely around the center. Recent visible satellite images have shown hints of an eye, but the surrounding convective tops have warmed somewhat. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates all support hurricane strength, and the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt for this advisory. Satellite fixes show that Miriam has slowed down and is moving westward or 270/8 kt. The hurricane is near the western edge of the subtropical ridge and is forecast to turn west-northwestward very soon. A large mid- to upper-level trough located northeast of the Hawaiian Islands should cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then northward over the next couple of days, and the dynamical models are in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, model differences remain as the ECMWF continues to take a deeper cyclone much faster northward than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC forecast continues to lean toward the solution of a weaker cyclone turning northwestward or west-northwestward near the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is once again south of the model consensus at days 4 and 5 and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. Miriam has about another 12-24 h over warm water and within a light to moderate wind shear environment in which to strengthen. After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is anticipated and Miriam is forecast to weaken fairly quickly between 36 and 72 hours. Miriam should reach SSTs below 26C by 96 h and should degenerate into a remnant low by that time. Miriam will move into the Central Pacific Basin shortly and this is last NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Miriam can be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3, WMO header WTPA33 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 14.0N 139.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 14.4N 140.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 15.3N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 16.7N 141.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 18.4N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 21.5N 142.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 24.7N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1800Z 27.0N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Miriam Graphics
2018-08-29 22:56:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Aug 2018 20:56:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Aug 2018 21:22:00 GMT
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Hurricane Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-08-29 22:44:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 878 FOPZ15 KNHC 292044 PWSEP5 HURRICANE MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 92 1(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 140W 50 23 6(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 140W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 14(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-08-29 22:44:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 895 WTPZ45 KNHC 292044 TCDEP5 Hurricane Miriam Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 The satellite presentation of Miriam has significantly improved over the past 12 hours or so. Several microwave images received since the release of the previous advisory revealed a significant increase in organization with convection wrapping nearly completely around the center. Recent visible satellite images have shown hints of an eye, but the surrounding convective tops have warmed somewhat. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates all support hurricane strength, and the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt for this advisory. Satellite fixes show that Miriam has slowed down and is moving westward or 270/8 kt. The hurricane is near the western edge of the subtropical ridge and is forecast to turn west-northwestward very soon. A large mid- to upper-level trough located northeast of the Hawaiian Islands should cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then northward over the next couple of days, and the dynamical models are in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, model differences remain as the ECMWF continues to take a deeper cyclone much faster northward than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC forecast continues to lean toward the solution of a weaker cyclone turning northwestward or west-northwestward near the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is once again south of the model consensus at days 4 and 5 and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. Miriam has about another 12-24 h over warm water and within a light to moderate wind shear environment in which to strengthen. After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is anticipated and Miriam is forecast to weaken fairly quickly between 36 and 72 hours. Miriam should reach SSTs below 26C by 96 h and should degenerate into a remnant low by that time. Miriam will move into the Central Pacific Basin shortly and this is last NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Miriam can be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3, WMO header WTPA32 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 14.0N 139.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 14.4N 140.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 15.3N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 16.7N 141.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 18.4N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 21.5N 142.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 24.7N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1800Z 27.0N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Miriam (EP5/EP152018)
2018-08-29 22:44:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MIRIAM BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 the center of Miriam was located near 14.0, -139.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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