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Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2020-11-17 03:34:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 170234 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 4 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GUANAJA 34 5 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) BLUEFIELDS 34 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN ANDRES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LIMON 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 15

2020-11-17 03:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IOTA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL VERY SOON... ...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 83.4W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.4 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota is expected to make landfall in northeastern Nicaragua during the next hour or two and move inland across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast after Iota moves inland, and it is expected to dissipate over Central America on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently reported sustained winds of 70 mph (113 km/h) with a gust to 103 mph (166 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 920 mb (27.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and these winds will spread inland across northern Nicaragua during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Honduras. Tropical storm conditions should subside during the next few hours on the islands of Providencia and San Andres. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm) across northeast Nicaragua and northern Honduras. El Salvador and Panama: 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts

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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-11-17 03:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170232 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER * BAY ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 45SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.7N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.8N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.8N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 14A

2020-11-17 00:56:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 162356 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 700 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...WESTERN EYEWALL OF CATEGORY 5 IOTA IS OVER NICARAGUA... ...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 83.0W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.0 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua within the next few hours, and dissipate over Central America on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected until landfall, but rapid weakening is forecast after Iota moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently reported sustained winds of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a gust to 81 mph (130 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches) based on Air Force reconnaissance data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua tonight with tropical storm conditions already ongoing. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island of Providencia and San Andres for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua and will begin in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Honduras later tonight. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. El Salvador and Panama: 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts

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