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Hurricane Iota Graphics
2020-11-16 03:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Nov 2020 02:33:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Nov 2020 02:33:09 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-16 03:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA FORECAST TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE SOON... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE- THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 10:00 PM EST Sun Nov 15 the center of Iota was located near 13.3, -80.2 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 11
2020-11-16 03:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...IOTA FORECAST TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE SOON... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE- THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 80.2W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday morning: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm). WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras beginning late Monday with tropical storm conditions expected Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical storm conditions expected during the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres later tonight with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-11-16 03:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160231 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Iota continues to gain strength. A small eye has occasionally appeared in satellite images, and the banding features are well established and fairly symmetric around the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Iota earlier this evening, and they found maximum flight-level winds of 93 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 84 kt around 00Z. Based on this data and the continued improvement in organization, the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt. The minimum pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft was 961 mb around 00Z, which is a 13 mb drop from the flight earlier today. Another Air Force plane is set to be in the hurricane overnight. Iota is moving westward at about 9 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua Monday night. After landfall, the models show a slight bend to the left as the hurricane moves in the flow on the southeast side of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The hurricane is in near ideal conditions to continue strengthening until landfall. In an environment of warm 29 C waters, very low wind shear, and a moist air mass all of the normally skillful models show Iota becoming a dangerous major hurricane before it strikes the coast. Given the favorable conditions, well-defined structure of the hurricane, and model guidance there is high confidence that significant wind, surge, and rainfall impacts will occur in portions of the hurricane warning area. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is expected and the hurricane will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain in Central America in 3 or 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia later tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. 3. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 13.3N 80.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 13.5N 81.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 13.9N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.2N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 14.3N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 14.1N 87.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 19/0000Z 13.8N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-11-16 03:31:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160231 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 80.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 80.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 79.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.5N 81.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.9N 82.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.2N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.3N 85.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.1N 87.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.8N 88.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 80.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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