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Hurricane Iota Graphics
2020-11-16 12:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Nov 2020 11:44:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Nov 2020 09:24:36 GMT
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-11-16 09:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160855 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and aircrew that flew the arduous, 10-hour round-trip mission into Iota reported a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 134 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 121 kt, which supports the initial intensity of 125 kt, making Iota a strong Category 4 hurricane. Furthermore, the pressure fell an amazing 10 mb from 945 mb down to 935 mb in a little over an hour between those two fixes. The crew also encountered intense lightning and hail in the southwestern quadrant, where recent remote data indicate that frequent lightning is still occurring. The aircrew reported that the eye was around 15 n mi wide, and the latest GOES-16 hi-resolution infrared satellite imagery confirms that the eye diameter, and that the eye has cleared out with continued warming eye temperatures and cooling surrounding cloud tops. Iota is moving north of due west, or 280/09 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast until powerful Hurricane Iota makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua later tonight. Shortly after landfall, a building ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to nudge Iota on a more westward track through 36 hours, followed by a slower west-southwestward motion across central and southwestern Honduras until it dissipates in the 72-96 hour period. The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Iota is expected to remain in environmental conditions characterized by near-zero vertical wind shear, SSTs near 29 deg C, and a moist mid-level environment. The combination of these factors plus the relatively small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 10 n mi, argues for continued rapid strengthening right up until landfall occurs, and Iota could be near Category 5 strength at that time. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. Iota is forecast to become a tropical storm by 36 hours, and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, if not sooner, which is in line with the SHIPS intensity inland decay model. The NHC official intensity forecast remains above of all of the available guidance through 24 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity model thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and could possibly be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely on Providencia today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.6N 81.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 14.3N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1800Z 14.1N 88.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/0600Z 13.8N 89.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Iota Graphics
2020-11-16 09:34:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Nov 2020 08:34:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Nov 2020 08:34:13 GMT
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Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-11-16 09:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 160831 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC MON NOV 16 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUANAJA 34 2 7( 9) 10(19) 2(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) GUANAJA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 78 21(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 9 79(88) 4(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 3 66(69) 7(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) BLUEFIELDS 34 3 11(14) 3(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) BLUEFIELDS 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) SAN ANDRES 50 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN ANDRES 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LIMON 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 12
2020-11-16 09:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160831 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...IOTA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE......EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 81.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in Nicaragua and Honduras. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed on Providencia and San Andres islands. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA satellite data near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 81.1 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island during the next few hours, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras tonight. Data from the aircraft and NOAA satellites indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next 12 to 18 hours, and Iota could possibly be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches Central America tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras beginning late tonight with tropical storm conditions expected by late morning. Hurricane conditions are likely occurring on the island of Providencia, with tropical storm conditions expected through the remainder of this morning and possibly into the early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring on the island of San Andres, with hurricane conditions possible there later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late afternoon and in the warning area in Honduras by tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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