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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-21 07:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
018 ABNT20 KNHC 210558 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry, located more than a hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out of the northeastern Caribbean Sea. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti continues to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Due to strong upper-level winds, significant development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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