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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-22 07:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 220542 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda. Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that the area of low pressure located just north of Tobago in the Windward Islands is becoming better organized and is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves west-northwestward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Leeward and Windward Islands during the next couple of days and will spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this low, and tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico later today. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A strong tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is already producing thunderstorm activity that is showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form on Monday or Tuesday while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Further information on the system near the Windward Islands can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Blake
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