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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-08 19:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 081738 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores continues to produce gale-force winds to the north of its center. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics through early Wednesday, and this system could still become a tropical or subtropical storm later today or early Wednesday while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wednesday evening. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Cloudiness and showers located off the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States are associated with a frontal boundary and a broad, non-tropical area of low pressure. This system is forecast to drift northward or northeastward and deepen as a non-tropical low off the east coast of the United States during the next day or so. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics by the end of the week while it remains off the east coast of the United States. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring strong winds, coastal flooding, and rough surf to portions of the mid- Atlantic and northeastern United States coast through late week. Additional information on this system can also be found in local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Recent satellite wind data indicate that a small area of low pressure has formed in association with an area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. The system is producing winds to near tropical storm strength and the associated thunderstorm activity has recently shown some signs of organization. Although upper-level winds, are not particularly favorable for additional development, only a small increase in organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression or storm later today or tonight. On Wednesday, the system is forecast to merge with the low off the east coast of the United States, and further development is not anticipated after that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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