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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-11 14:30:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
255 ABNT20 KNHC 111230 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 830 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion for the system southeast of New England. UPDATED: Early morning visible satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to become better organized near the center of a low pressure system located about 200 miles south-southeast of Martha's Vineyard. If this trend continues, advisories will likely be issued for this system as a subtropical storm later this morning. Upper-level winds are expected to increase over the system during the weekend while the low weakens and moves away from the northeastern United States. This low is already producing storm-force winds, and is expected to continue meandering off the coast through tonight, producing strong winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and rough surf along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States coasts. Additional information on this system can be found in local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the weekend. This system is forecast to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low remains over water while moving near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Although the far eastern Atlantic is not climatologically favorable for tropical cyclone formation this late in the hurricane season, some development of this system appears possible early next week while it moves generally northwestward near or over the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Latto
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