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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-13 19:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131751 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located about 400 miles south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. A vigorous tropical wave, accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system, has emerged over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the coast of Guinea-Bissau. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the next few days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward over or just east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant development by midweek. Interests in and around the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A broad area of low pressure located along the coast of northeastern Nicaragua is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over most of the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and much of Central America. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which will inhibit tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days due to land interaction. By Wednesday, however, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity and strong gusty winds to near gale force in the northern portion of the wave. Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development to occur during the next few days while the system moves westward at around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the disturbance approaches the southern Lesser Antilles, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any significant development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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