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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-10-14 01:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

510 ABNT20 KNHC 132343 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Melissa, located about 400 miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa. Although showers and thunderstorms associated with the system decreased somewhat earlier this evening, satellite imagery indicates that they are beginning to increase once again. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward over or just east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Interests in and around the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorm over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure over eastern Honduras. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward across northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which is likely to inhibit tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days due to land interaction. By Wednesday, however, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, and any development of this system over the next few days should be slow to occur while it moves westward at around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the disturbance approaches the southern Lesser Antilles, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any significant development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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